Friday, September 12, 2014

Views on #IIP and #CPI numbers

“Although it is quite disappointing to see a marginal growth of just 0.5% in the IIP for July, but the data is known for its inherent monthly volatility. Capital goods which registered a yoy growth of 23% in June 2014, fell sharply to (-) 3.8 in July 2014. This was a major pull back on the overall index along-with consumer durables and non-durables. However, the overall growth observed between April-July is at 3.3% and is still better than (-) 0.1% attained same time last year. We are hopeful, of a rebound in manufacturing activities as demand picks up by end of current quarter.

The CPI data for August is along expected lines. Fruits and vegetables continue to pressurize general price levels. We expect food inflation to rein in soon, with the Kharif produce for 2014-15 catching up with the levels of 2013-14. Currently there is a 3% deficit compared to the previous year.”

By Debopam Chaudhuri, Chief Economist, ZyFin Research