Monday, September 3, 2018

Expect @Wipro Q3 revenue growth guidance to be in-line with industry growth rate

Wipro announced a 10 year Digital Transformation deal with Alight Solutions LLC worth USD 1.5bn. This is the largest win for Wipro and will result in incremental yearly revenue of USD150mn (~2% of rev). Margin profile is in-line with company average and 2QFY19 will have only month contribution (Sep-18), while 3QFY19 will have full quarter impact.

The deal involves complete Digital transformation of Alight's offerings across Health, Wealth, Cloud HR and Finance Solutions. Alight has revenue of ~USD 2.5bn has over 1400 plus clients, out of which ~250 are Fortune 500 clients.

Wipro's 55-60% of the portfolio has been doing really well. It includes BFSI (30% of rev), Consumer (ex Retail, ~7% of rev), Healthcare ex-HPS (~11%), Energy (~5% of rev & 40% of ENU) and Manufacturing (ex-Europe). BFSI growth is led by large Europe banks and is growing faster than industry average.

~15-20% of the portfolio is under stress and will take 1-2 quarters to recover. This includes HPS (~2% of rev), Utilities (~8% of rev and ~60 % of ENU) and Retail (~9% of rev). HPS quarterly rate is down from USD 70mn to USD 30mn in 1QFY19 and is further expected to decline in 2Q. However, 3Q is an open enrolment season and some recovery is expected in HPS revenue.

Communications (~9%) and Europe Manufacturing (~10%) which were facing client specific issues have also bottomed out.

With large deal wins and recovery in stressed verticals, we expect 3Q revenue growth guidance to be in-line with industry growth rate. We are enthused with the deal win and growth outlook is improving gradually. However, FY19/20E USD revenue growth rates for Wipro are still the lowest in the Tier-1 pack. The stock is currently available at cheap valuations (~15% discount to Tier-1 average) and re-rating will take place gradually with improvement in growth and margin outlook.