The third wave of the survey followed a different design compared to the first two. While 3,310 and 3,372 respondents were interviewed in the first and the second waves respectively, the third round was much bigger in size. A total of 34,425 respondents were selected from 1,750 polling booths spread across all the 70 Assembly Constituencies. Within each constituency 25 Polling Booths were selected by using Circular Random Sampling. From each of the sampled polling booth, a total of 20 respondents were randomly selected by contacting every nth house (n=households in the booth/20) with a random start and using a Kish Grid (gender x age) to select respondents within each household. All interviews were conducted face-to-face using a standard-structured questionnaire and a dummy ballot was used for voting questions. The fieldwork was conducted between 5th September and 5th October.
The survey shows a steady churning in the political mood of Delhi in 2013. The survey findings show a steady improvement in the position of the Aam Aadmi Party. Since the last survey, AAP has gained 5 percentage points to move to the first position. If election were held between September 5th and October 5th, the AAP would have secured 32 percent votes, followed by the Congress with 28 percent votes and the BJP with 24 percent votes respectively. If Congress was the biggest looser between the first and the second wave of the survey, the BJP was the real looser between the second and the third wave. Usually pre-election surveys tend to overestimate the ruling party (the Congress in this case), and underestimate a new party (like the AAP). Estimates offered here have not been adjusted for these two known biases.
Table 2: Vote
Estimates – February to September 2013
|
|
Wave
– I (February)
|
Wave
– II (August)
|
Wave
– III (September)
|
|
Congress
|
35 %
|
26 %
|
28 %
|
|
BJP
|
35 %
|
31 %
|
24 %
|
|
AAP
|
14 %
|
27 %
|
32 %
|
|
BSP
|
6 %
|
7 %
|
7 %
|
|
Others
|
10 %
|
9 %
|
9 %
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sample Size
|
3,310
|
3,375
|
34,425
|
|
Constituencies sampled
|
35
|
35
|
70
|
|
Polling booths sampled
|
175
|
175
|
1750
|
AAP draws its votes more of less evenly from across all sections of the electorate. With a few exceptions, the vote share of AAP falls within 5 percentage point band (plus or minus 5 points) of its average vote share of 32 per cent. In relative terms, the AAP does better among the younger voters and men than among the senior citizens and women. In terms of class and education, it does better in the middle than among the top-most and the bottom. AAP has emerged as the leading vote getter among the traditional BJP stronghold of upper caste voters and the traditional Congress bastion of dalits. Among Muslims and Sikhs, it has emerged as a strong challenger to the Congress and the BJP respectively. The AAP has registered impressive growth of 17 percentage points among the Muslims and 21 percentage points among the dalit voters in Delhi since the Cicero poll in February this year.
In keeping with its push for transparency and accountability in public life, Aam Aadami Party has requested Cicero Associates & Consultants to place the unit level raw data of this third round of survey in the public domain. The Data File presented here is a raw data file, without any corrections, recodes and weights whatsoever. Details of Assembly Constituency, Polling Station and Respondent ID have been deleted in order to maintain confidentiality of the respondents. The variables on migration (Q2) and Caste (B5) are not part of the file as they are being coded. The data file can be accessed at www.aamaadamiparty.org and any queries can be sent to Dhananjai Joshi, Director Cicero Associates.
